Bootheel Region Study
Central Region Study
Kansas City Region Study
Lake Ozark-Rolla Region Study
Lower East central - Cape Region Study
Northeast Region Study
Northwest Region Study
Southwest Region Study
St. Louis City Study
St. Louis Metro Region Study
Springfield Region Study

Target Missouri II:

The Northeast Region

Executive Summary

Six analysis tools are used to determine which industries should be chosen for targeting in the Northeast Region. The first two tools, Specialization Ratios (SR) and the Regional Shift (RS) component of Shift-Share Analysis (SSA), help to determine which industries might have a competitive advantage in a region. The third and most important tool, the Economic Impact (EI) analysis, helps to identify which industries will most benefit the region should they expand. The Skills-Mismatch Index (SMI) determines whether the skills of the available workforce in a region match the needed skills for a particular industry. The Industrial Mix (IM) component of SSA helps to identify emerging industries. Finally, the Current Employment (CE) level of a regional industry helps to determine whether needed infrastructure is in place to attract particular industries and is an important factor when considering SRs.

Industries are awarded points on a scale of 0 to 100 based on whether they meet necessary criteria in these six categories. Those industries that score the highest are recommended for targeting. The table on the following page displays the categories and the point value an industry receives if it performs well in a specific category. If an industry does not meet the condition for that category, no points are awarded. An industry that scores well in each of the categories receives a score of 100 points, while those industries that perform poorly receive 0 points. Industries that score 50 or more points are those recommended for targeting.

Category Point Value
Condition 1: High Economic Impact 40
Condition 2: High Specialization Ratio 20
Condition 3: Strong Regional Shift 20
Condition 4: Low Skills-Mismatch 10
Condition 5: Positive Industrial Mix & Regional Shift 5
Condition 6: High Current Employment 5
Total Points: 100

The tables that follow present those industries with scores of 50 or higher on the target scale for the Northeast Region. In general, this region has an relatively small number of industries scoring at least 55 points, suggesting that the Northeast Region needs more diversification within its economy. While several industries score very high on the scale, this general lack of diversification is likely a contributor to the region’s recent economic struggles (see MERIC’s Economic Momentum series).

No industries in the region achieved a perfect score of 100 points, but nine industries did score 95. In total, twelve industries scored 80 points or higher on the targeting scale, suggesting that these industries are the primary drivers of the Northeast region’s economy. Of these twelve, two are part of the Advanced Manufacturing cluster and two are part of the Life Sciences cluster, both of which are important in the "New Economy." Further, while all twelve of these industries are growing in the Northeast, only two are experiencing employment growth at the national level (SIC 366 Communications Equipment and SIC 494 Water Utilities).

Another nineteen industries scored between 55 and 75 points on the target scale, suggesting the Northeast Region is ripe for potential development in these industries. Included among these are two Advanced Manufacturing firms, while the others are less sophisticated manufacturing or service-producing industries. It is perhaps this lack of development-ready industries, particularly the lack of Advanced Manufacturing, Life Science, or Information Technology industries, that is most indicative of the hurdles that must be overcome in this region.

Additionally, 64 industries scored 50 points on the target scale, suggesting these industries are good matches for the Northeast Region. This comparatively large list includes all remaining identified Advanced Manufacturing and many Life Science industries. The large number of target industries scoring exactly 50 points suggests that the region is in great need of infrastructure development in order to enjoy future economic success.

TM2 has provided a list of 95 industries that have the best potential for economic development in the Northeast Region. The original Target Missouri provided a list of only 20 target industries for this region. Of these, 16 appear on both lists, so in this case, the two studies have obtained similar results. However, the expanded list generated by TM2 provides a list of industries that better fits the specifics of the Northeast Region, as well as providing rankings that shed some light on the relative importance of certain industries.

Map 1 shows the approximate locations of only those industries scoring at least 80 points on the target scale, which are industries that are already drivers of the Northeast economy. The map clearly paints a picture of a region divided, anchored by the cities of Kirksville and Macon on the west, and Hannibal, Bowling Green, and Louisiana toward the southeast. The central and northern portions of the region lack the industries that are drivers of the area’s economy.

Map 1: Locations of High-Scoring Industries

Map 2 shows the approximate location of those industries scoring at least 55 points on the target scale, those industries with high potential for development. As with Map 1, areas of potential development are highly concentrated around the same five cities. Together these two maps depict a dichotomous Northeast region, with areas on the brink of developing advanced industries, as well as areas needing special help to spark more traditional economic development.

Map 2: Current Locations of Potential Target Industries


Northeast Region Target Industries
SIC Industry Total Score
332 Iron and steel foundries 95
335 Nonferrous rolling and drawing 95
356 General industrial machinery and equipment 95
363 Household appliances 95
366 Communications equipment 95
201 Meat products 95
275-276 Commercial printing and business forms 95
281,286 Industrial chemicals 95
287 Agricultural chemicals 95
364 Electric lighting and wiring equipment 90
491,%493 Electric utilities 85
494-497,%493 Water and sanitation 85
324 Hydraulic cement 75
371 Motor vehicles and equipment 75
203 Preserved fruits and vegetables 75
45 Air Transportation 75
367 Electronic components and accessories 70
40 Railroad 70
46 Pipelines, except natural gas 70
735 Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing 70
14 Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels 65
336 Nonferrous foundries 60
354 Metalworking machinery and equipment 60
492,%493 Gas utilities 60
833 Job training and related services 60
07 Agricultural services 60
347 Metal coating, engraving, and allied services 55
358 Refrigeration and service industry machinery 55
472 Passenger transportation arrangement 55
721,725 Laundry, cleaning, and shoe repair 55
751 Automotive rentals, without drivers 55
241 Logging 50
321-323 Glass and glass products 50
325,326,328,329 Stone, clay, and misc. mineral products 50
327 Concrete, gypsum, & plaster products 50
331 Blast furnaces and basic steel products 50
333 Primary nonferrous smelting & refining 50
334,339 All other primary metals 50
341 Metal cans and shipping containers 50
342 Cutlery, hand tools, and hardware 50
343 Plumbing and nonelectric heating equipment 50
345 Screw machine products, bolts, rivets, etc. 50
346 Metal forgings and stampings 50
348 Ordnance and ammunition 50
349 Miscellaneous fabricated metal products 50
351 Engines and turbines 50
352 Farm and garden machinery and equipment 50
353 Construction and related machinery 50
355 Special industry machinery 50
357 Computer and office equipment 50
361 Electric distribution equipment 50
362 Electrical industrial apparatus 50
365 Household audio and video equipment 50
369 Miscellaneous electrical equipment 50
372,376 Aerospace 50
373 Ship and boat building and repairing 50
374 Railroad equipment 50
375,379 Miscellaneous transportation equipment 50
381 Search and navigation equipment 50
382 Measuring and controlling devices 50
384 Medical equipment, instruments and supplies 50
385 Ophthalmic goods 50
386 Photographic equipment and supplies 50
387 Watches, clocks, and parts 50
202 Dairy products 50
204,207 Grain mill products and fats and oils 50
205 Bakery products 50
206 Sugar and confectionery products 50
208 Beverages 50
209 Miscellaneous food and kindred products 50
21 Tobacco products 50
221-224,226,228 Weaving, finishing, yarn, and thread mills 50
225 Knitting mills 50
227 Carpets and rugs 50
229 Miscellaneous textile goods 50
261-263 Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills 50
267 Converted paper products except containers 50
272 Periodicals 50
273 Books 50
274 Miscellaneous publishing 50
277 Greeting cards 50
278 Blankbooks and bookbinding 50
279 Service industries for the printing trade 50
282 Plastics materials and synthetics 50
283 Drugs 50
284 Soap, cleaners, and toilet goods 50
285 Paints and allied products 50
289 Miscellaneous chemical products 50
291 Petroleum refining 50
295,299 Miscellaneous petroleum and coal products 50
301 Tires and inner tubes 50
308 Miscellaneous plastics products, nec 50
15-17 Construction 50
44 Water transportation 50
473,474,478 Miscellaneous transportation services 50
Life Science Industries
Information and Communications Technologies
Advanced Manufacturing